Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and decision analysis, there is considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate ...

A regular traveler is planning an overseas trip but hasn't purchased her plane ticket. So she visits various websites that can predict whether the cost of her ticket will rise or fall. Two sites say ...

Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 93: Advances in Water Resources and Exploration (FALL 2019), pp. 119-124 (6 pages) In order to improve the numerical analysis ability of long period wave ...

One simple change to forecasters' standard operating procedure could boost forecast accuracy, increase accountability, reduce misunderstandings and miscalculations, and generally make the world a ...

Blog posts represent the views of CFR fellows and staff and not those of CFR, which takes no institutional positions. Estimating and translating the probability of an event for decision-makers is ...

If I told you that something was “very likely,” what would you consider the odds of it happening? The answer isn’t just academic. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports on ...

Dr. James McCaffrey of Microsoft Research uses a full code sample and screenshots to demonstrate how to create a naive Bayes classification system when the predictor values are numeric, using the C# ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...